MATHEMATICAL MODELLING - THE EFFECT OF CORONAVIRUS

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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 WORLDWIDE
                                              
WHAT IS CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new virus.
The disease causes respiratory illness (like the flu) with symptoms such as a cough, fever, and in more severe cases, difficulty breathing. You can protect yourself by washing your hands frequently, avoiding touching your face, and avoiding close contact (1 meter or 3 feet) with people who are unwell.


HOW IT SPREADS
Coronavirus disease spreads primarily through contact with an infected person when they cough or sneeze. It also spreads when a person touches a surface or object that has the virus on it, then touches their eyes, nose, or mouth.

Basic protective measures against the coronavirus
Stay aware of the latest information on the COVID-19 outbreak, available on the WHO website and through your national and local public health authority. Most people who become infected experience mild illness and recover, but it can be more severe for others. Take care of your health and protect others by doing the following:

Wash your hands frequently
Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.

Why? Washing your hands with soap and water or using alcohol-based hand rub kills viruses that may be on your hands.

Maintain social distancing
Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

Why? When someone coughs or sneezes, they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person coughing has the disease.


Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth
Why? Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and can make you sick.

Practice respiratory hygiene
Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.

Why? Droplets spread virus. By following good respiratory hygiene you protect the people around you from viruses such as cold, flu and COVID-19.

If you have fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical care early
Stay home if you feel unwell. If you have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical attention and call in advance. Follow the directions of your local health authority.

Why? National and local authorities will have the most up to date information on the situation in your area. Calling in advance will allow your health care provider to quickly direct you to the right health facility. This will also protect you and help prevent spread of viruses and other infections.
Stay informed and follow advice given by your healthcare provider
Stay informed on the latest developments about COVID-19. Follow advice given by your healthcare provider, your national and local public health authority or your employer on how to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.

Why? National and local authorities will have the most up to date information on whether COVID-19 is spreading in your area. They are best placed to advise on what people in your area should be doing to protect themselves.



           Cross-sectional model of Coronavirus




MODEL:
                
  
            NORMAL PERSON   + INFECTED PERSON   →    2 INFECTED PERSON





ASSUMPTION: 

1.     The virus spreads only when an infected person comes in contact with a normal person.
2.     (If government doesn’t take any step) i.e. Everybody comes contact with everyone.
3.     No birth so population remains constant. (Death counted others).
4.     No medicine.

       


                                  


DATE OF DATA COLLECTED- 09.04.2020  ( SOURCE- WORLDOMETERS , GOOGLE,  WHO )
                                           

NO
COUNTRY
POPULATION
TOTAL EFFECETD
RECOVERY
DEATH
STILL EFFECTED
Percentage of STILL Effected Over Population
1
UNITED STATES
327200000
435160
22891
14797
397472
0.121476773
2
SPAIN
46900000
148220
48021
14792
85407
0.182104478
3
ITALY
60400000
139422
26491
17669
95262
0.157718543
4
GERMANY
83000000
113296
46300
2349
64647
0.077887952
5
FRANCE
67000000
112950
21254
10869
80827
0.120637313
6
CHINA
1386400000
81865
77370
3335
1160
8.36699E-05
7
IRAN
81200000
64586
29812
3993
30781
0.037907635
8
UNITED KINGDOM
66000000
60733
135
7097
53501
0.081062121
9
INDIA
1339200000
5916
506
178
5232
0.000390681
10
NEW ZEALAND
4790000
1239
317
1
921
0.019227557

           
    

    



        
          
   

        RATE PER DAY =0.2


NO
COUNTRY
Effected percentage After 10 Days
Effected percentage After 30 Days
Effected percentage After 50 Days
Effected percentage After 60 Days
Effected percentage After 90 Days
Effected percentage After 120 Days
1
UNITED STATES
50.54
98.24
99.97
99.995
99.99998899
99.99999997
2
SPAIN
62.20
98.90
99.98
99.997
99.99999316
99.99999998
3
ITALY
58.05
98.69
99.98
99.996
99.99999187
99.99999998
4
GERMANY
38.43
97.15
99.95
99.992
99.99998197
99.99999996
5
FRANCE
50.34
98.23
99.97
99.995
99.9999889
99.99999997
6
CHINA
0.06
3.27
64.83
93.16
99.98180238
99.99995488
7
IRAN
22.55
94.08
99.88
99.98
99.99996135
99.9999999
8
UNITED KINGDOM
39.46
97.27
99.95
99.993
99.99998273
99.99999996
9
INDIA
0.29
13.62
89.59
98.45
99.99610336
99.99999034
10
NEW ZEALAND
12.65
88.78
99.77
99.97
99.99992231
99.99999981











Report:  This model clearly shows that if as per rate people contact with the effected person as a result in 120 days population of unaffected person in worldwide will be 0.
(PROVIDED - For the calculation taken above, it is considered that everyone stays in one confined place as whole. The result does not bring out the realistic effect, but is a mathematical basis on how deadly the virus is and its harmful nature to the mankind, if not taken proper control of.)


Conclusion: One and only way to stop coronavirus is to be stop it’s spreading and break the cycle of it, for so contact with any people to other people have to be stop otherwise this virus so dangerous for us.

- Tanmay Saha & Satyam Saha







   





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