What is the probability you will open this blog ?

             

          The word "Probability" often comes into our day-to-day life referring to, "What is the probability of some random event ?" simply saying what at most chance the event to occur. 

           For a long time, I have been in a dilemma about why probability is so useful, my counter-argument was, "Probability tells us about the most probable event to happen based on the available ones, it does not give us the guarantee that the event to be happened for sure, then why it's so overrated ?" 

        

           I remember one day I was standing at the junction of three roads, from one way a car was coming, so the question is what can happen next? I assume the driver does not have the same question as mine so she would not stop the car and think, it's a three-junction road what does the boy do next? 😀😀 So she continuously drives... 

         Now if we analyze the question of what happens next, two options are there since there are two roads say the left and right road of mine, my question is which road she will go? 

            

         So, the probability of going left and right road is both 1/2. But,

1.  It does not give me the answer rather it gives me a chance where she can go.

2. The answer is 1/2 means either she can go left or right, obviously that's our natural intuition.

 

      So, then why do we need "Probability" if it does not give us something extra about the question (experiment)? 

    Here is the catch, "The more information you know about the experiment more likely you will get your answer. Probability does not offer a guaranteed answer but it offers the most probable answer."

      

     Now you imagine the above scenario with little change now it's a four-junction road and a car is coming it has three options,

1) Which way it will go?

The probability of going front, right or left all are 1/3. (😅😅 1/3 < 1/2 it gets more worst than before)

2) Imagine left-hand side some construction work is going on and she knows about that, then what is the probability she will not turn left?

So, the answer is 2/3. (😃😃 1/3 < 1/2 < 2/3 😎😎 some relief).

 So, now you can understand about probability main thing is,

1. Asking the right question. 

2. More information about the experiment and more variables (called events).

        Come to history in the beginning of the 17th century gambling became one of the famous games, and gamblers started asking the question "What is the chance to win the game?"

           

        Till now the way I calculated probability was introduced by Laplace in the 19th century called the classical definition of probability, which works in a simple rule,

       Let E be a random experiment, there are equally likely n events to occur, let A be one of the events then, what is the probability of A? Denoted by P(A),

         P(A) = {Number of times event A occur}/{Total number of events} 

Ex. Let's calculate the first one, 

E = In a three-junction road car is coming one way there are other ways.

No of events = 2; left side and right side

The probability of going to left is = {Number of times left occur}/{Total number of events} = 1/2, similarly for the right side. 

Similarly, you can calculate the others.

           Now answer the question, for that you are here, "What is the probability you are going open this blog ?"

E = There is a blog published and you saw it on some social media site.

No of events = 2; open or not open

The probability of you going open this blog is = {Number of times open occur}/{Total number of events} = 1/2, similarly for the not open.

       But you already opened and read it, so is the probability we calculate changed now? 

      What do think comment down below your thoughts.